2023年9月，北京大學(xué)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)學(xué)院助理教授、中國農(nóng)業(yè)政策研究中心研究員、現(xiàn)代農(nóng)學(xué)院博士生導(dǎo)師黃開興以第一作者兼通訊作者身份與合作者在國際學(xué)術(shù)期刊Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists（JAERE）上在線發(fā)表題為“Positive Rainfall Shocks, Overoptimism, and Agricultural Inefficiency in China”的研究論文。JAERE是資源與環(huán)境經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域公認的國際頂級期刊，位于SSCI經(jīng)濟學(xué)大類Q1區(qū)（12/373），影響因子5.167。

論文主要內(nèi)容如下：This study identifies overoptimism of farmers as an important cause of factor misallocation and inefficiency in agriculture. Annual deviation of rainfall from the local normal is exogenous, unanticipated, and transitory, but we find that farmers substantially adjust labor and land allocation in response to a lagged positive rainfall shock. By examining the response of more than 10,000 farmers in China over 11 years, we show that a lagged positive rainfall shock significantly reallocates labor from high-income off-farm work to low-income farm work, reallocates farmland from high-productivity farmers to low-productivity farmers, and reduces the average rural income by 8.1 percent. We also found that these effects are primarily driven by the irrational responses of low-productivity farmers and that farms with good irrigation conditions are generally not damaged.